|
Wednesday, June 13,
2007
Clinton, Obama, and Gore Close Gap on Giuliani
in Today's
Quinnipiac Poll
analysis by Jerry Policoff
 The top three
Democratic presidential candidates have caught up to the top Republican
presidential contender, former New York City Mayor
Rudolph Giuliani. Hillary Clinton
gets 45 percent to Giuliani's 44 percent; Barack Obama ties
Giuliani 42 - 42 percent and former Vice President Al Gore gets 45 percent
to Giuliani's 43 percent, according to a Quinnipiac University national
poll released today.
Over-all Gore comes in
third among polled Registered Democrats with 18%... behind Hillary Clinton
(35%) and Barack Obama (21%). Trends, however, are all very much in
Gore’s favor. Versus February, Gore is up by 64%; Clinton is -8%; Obama
is -9%; Edwards is +33% but trails the rest of the pack by a substantial
margin. Of the four major candidates only Gore has a steady upward trend
in all three of the most recent polls.
Looking at the breakdown
of voters:
Among Republican
voters Obama has the highest favorable rating at 28%, up from 25% in
February. Edwards is next at 24%, down from 25% in February. Those
slight shifts don’t mean much statistically. Gore is third at 18%, up
from 12% in February, statistically a very significant increase. Clinton
pulls up the rear at 12%, up from 10% in February.
Among Democrats
Clinton and Gore are in a statistical dead heat with Clinton enjoying an
80% favorable rating and Gore 79%. Obama is third at 66% and Edwards is
fourth at 62%.
Among
Independents Gore leads the pack with a 51% favorable rating, up
significantly from February when he was at 41%. Obama is second with 48%,
up slightly from 45% in February. Clinton is third at 43%, up from 42% in
February. Edwards is at 37%, down from 38% in February. Gore is the only
one of the four to show substantial gains.
Gore leads the
pack among men with a 50% favorable rating, up from 40% in February. Obama is next at 48%, up from 40% in February. Hillary and Edwards are
tied at 42%.
Hillary leads
among Women with a 51% favorable rating, but that is down from 54% in
February. Gore is in a virtual dead heat with her at 50%, up from 48% in
February. Obama is at 48% (no change from February); and Edwards is at
41%, down from 44% in February. Significantly Hillary also leads the pack
with a 39% unfavorable rating among women, up from 37% in February. Gore
has something of a problem there as well with a 37% unfavorable rating,
but that is down from 41% in February. Edwards is viewed unfavorably by
23% of women, and Obama by 18%.
Only Gore has enjoyed a
boost in favorable ratings across all five of these voter sub-groups
versus February.
Gore is also surging
ahead in the trial heats. According to Quinnipiac, if the election were
held today and Giuliani was the Republican nominee:
Clinton would win
by 1-point.
Obama would win
by 2-points.
Gore would win by
3-points.
Versus McCain:
Clinton wins by 2
Obama also wins
by 2
Gore wins by 3
Versus Thompson:
Clinton wins by 7
Obama wins by 12
Gore wins by 12
It is impossible to
predict how these numbers would be impacted if Gore were to become a
declared candidate, but it seems clear that the voters, at least as of
today, wish he would run.
View Quinnipiac poll...
|
